As the race to meet 2030 targets begins, 2021 is set to be a record-breaker for renewable auctions in Europe, says Wood Mackenzie. 45 GW of capacity is in the auction pipeline for Europe, a significantly higher total than those targeted in recent years.
The total consists of 17 GW of wind and 6 GW of solar PV, with the remainder of auctions being either technology-neutral or applying to several sources. Previous auction outcomes highlight that there is no guarantee the targeted volumes will be achieved. Over the past three years, European auctions have seen an average award rate of 70%. If this same level of success is achieved in 2021, we could see upwards of 30 GW of capacity awarded.
The UK is targeting 12 GW from the fourth allocation round of its Contract for Difference (CfD) scheme. The round will include three technology pots with onshore wind and solar PV being readmitted to the scheme.
In Spain, a roll-over of the delayed 2020 auction will combine with the expected 5 GW annual target of the recent renewable energy auction decree. We expect to see around 8 GW targeted.
Poland has a similar ambition, with its first offshore wind auction of 5.9 GW combining with onshore wind and solar PV auctions indicating a total of 8 GW.