The latest outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), reviewed by the Sun Day Campaign, indicates lower wholesale electricity prices this summer, continued growth in renewable electricity generation and a further expansion of battery storage capacity. Renewable energy sources are forecast to account for 25.94%of U.S. electricity generation in 2026, rising from 24.05%in 2025 and 22.49%in 2024. The share is expected to increase further to 27.29%in 2027. These figures refer to utility-scale generation and exclude distributed solar, which could add around 2 percentage points.
Utility-scale solar generation increased by 33.79%in 2025 compared with 2024. The EIA forecasts further growth of 20.14%in 2026 and 20.17%in 2027. It also expects significant growth in solar generation within the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region.
Wind generation rose by 2.65%in 2025 compared with 2024. The EIA projects growth of 5.60%in 2026 and 6.12%in 2027. Wind is expected to provide 11.28%of U.S. electricity generation in 2026, remaining the largest renewable electricity source ahead of utility-scale solar (8.10%) and hydropower (5.91%).
Electricity prices at the Northwest Mid-Columbia trading hub are expected to fall from US$50/MWhin summer 2025 to US$27/MWhthis summer, reflecting increased hydropower output. Hydropower generation is forecast to increase by 4.47%in 2026 before declining slightly by 0.78%in 2027.
Battery storage capacity is projected to grow from 43 GWin 2025 to 67 GWin 2026 and 89 GWin 2027, following rapid expansion from 2 GWin 2020. Pumped hydro storage is expected to remain broadly unchanged at 23 GWin 2026, increasing marginally to 24 GWin 2027.
Total domestic biofuels production is forecast to rise from 1.382 million barrels per dayin 2025 to 1.473 million barrels per dayin 2026 and 1.563 million barrels per dayin 2027. Growth is expected across fuel ethanol, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, while biodiesel is forecast to recover after declining in 2025.
According to the Sun Day Campaign, the latest EIA outlook supports its expectation that utility-scale solar capacity will overtake wind capacity during 2026. The comparison excludes distributed solar installations, which the EIA estimated at 61.52 GWat the end of April 2026.
