The latest Global Market Overview report from TGS | 4C indicates that 2026 is set to be a busy year for offshore wind, driven by record offtake contract awards, large construction pipelines, impending investment decisions, and targets for 2030. Globally, the forecast for installed offshore wind capacity in 2030 has been revised down by 17% year on year, with capacity outside China reduced from 145 GW to 120 GW. Forecasts for 2040 have also been lowered, reflecting a longer-term downward adjustment for the industry.
Offtake awards have begun strongly in 2026. The UK’s Allocation Round 7 alone awarded 8.4 GW, contributing to a projected total of 19.6 GW for the year, which would surpass 2024’s 19.1 GW. Q1 site awards have been limited, with only Norway’s Utsira Nord (1 GW) confirmed so far, though a further 19.1 GW of floating and bottom-fixed projects is expected later in the year.
Commercial Operation Date milestones have been slow to start, with only 280 MW completed so far. Total CODs are expected to reach 17 GW in 2026, bringing global installed capacity to 103.4 GW by year-end, including 10.3 GW outside China. Final Investment Decisions are projected for 20.3 GW of projects this year.
The report also includes, for the first time, an analysis of turbine failures, forecasting over 30,000 failures to 2040. Component degradation is the main cause, followed by manufacturing, design, or installation issues, with Europe accounting for around 44% of failures.
Geopolitical developments, including the Iran conflict, could influence energy security and offshore wind deployment, potentially affecting site and offtake awards, permitting, and the pace of project development.
