A new report from Robert Gordon University warns that the UK could lose tens of thousands of offshore energy jobs by 2030 without immediate, coordinated intervention. Striking the Balance – Building a sustainable UK offshore energy workforce offers updated insights into the future of the offshore workforce, revealing a growing disconnect between policy goals and actual progress.
The report reviews industry forecasts and employment data, alongside comparisons with the strategies of countries such as Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands, which continue to support domestic fossil fuel production while expanding low-carbon energy.
It outlines three possible workforce scenarios—low, mid and high—between 2025 and 2035. These are based on variables including government policy, industry trends and investor confidence. Up to £350 billion in future investment is considered across the scenarios.
Key findings
- The total UK offshore energy workforce remained stable between 2023 and 2024 at around 154,000.
- Oil and gas jobs fell by approximately 5,000, from 120,000 in 2023 to around 115,000 in 2024.
- Jobs in offshore renewables grew from about 34,000 in 2023 to nearly 39,000 in 2024.
- By 2030, workforce demand is projected to range from 125,000 to 163,000 depending on investment and delivery.
- Oil and gas employment could drop to between 57,000 and 71,000 by the early 2030s.
- Offshore renewables jobs could rise to between 84,000 and 153,000 by 2035.
To maintain the current workforce level through 2030, the UK would need to deliver approximately 40 GW of installed offshore wind, achieve up to 40% UK content in capital expenditure, and sustain oil and gas output of around 0.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Before 2027, there is limited capacity within offshore renewables to absorb the oil and gas workforce displaced by industry contraction. UK content in offshore renewables remains at around 25% for capital activities and up to 85% for operations.
The report stresses that substantial new operational capacity is needed to meet targets of 40% UK capex content in new offshore wind and 50% in oil and gas decommissioning by 2030. Much of this must be established ahead of final investment decisions.
In Scotland, the offshore workforce may fall from around 75,000 in 2024 to between 45,000 and 63,000 by the early 2030s. Sustaining selective oil and gas activity may be necessary to preserve regional skills, supply chain capability, and economic benefits.
