The latest research report from IntelStor identifies the growth potential in the Turkish market. Last year Turkey installed 28% of all its operational wind turbines as the country drives from 3.76GW at end 2014 towards 20GW by 2023. Over 55% of the operational capacity in Turkey has been installed in the past 3 years.
Enercon has dominated the market due to their local presence there since 1997, but their grip on the market appears to be slipping. Vestas and Nordex are gathering the most momentum with over 151 units and 111 units respectively either under construction or firmly committed through announced orders. Siemens and Enercon trail with GE seeking additional unconditional orders before announcing another of their ‘multi-modal’ manufacturing facilities in Turkey. There are presently 514 turbines under construction or firm orders announced through 2017 commissioning. Class 1 wind sites have been a large majority of the installed base, while more class 2 and 3 wind sites have the opportunity to be exploited. According to analysis of the MW committed, turbine sizing for units under construction as well as announced orders are averaging above 2.8MW rated power and 95m rotor diameter for class 1, 2.4MW rated power and 98m rotor diameter for class 2, and 2.1MW rated power and 106m rotor diameter for class 3. Opportunity to increase those averages will come from 3.0MW and larger units being installed with greater frequency, which have not yet reached full market penetration. Several manufacturers are seeking to take advantage of a higher FiT through more domestic content, although wholesale market prices have enabled several projects which have not required the FiT. Break-even for domestic turbine manufacturing appears to be approximately 55 – 65 units annually with a 3 – 5 year order book. Aside from a few of the top players, this is an order book most of the active OEMs in Turkey lack at this point, but more capacity additions are expected. The Turkish government continues to seek public / private partnerships as well as cultivate their own turbine development program through their national research institute TUBITAK. Numerous technology and IP licensing opportunities exist for Turkey as companies look to continue building a domestic supply chain. Overall, prospects for Turkey look set for growth with the potential to regionally supply from a Turkish base to neighboring countries in Eastern Europe and Western Asia.
