The Global Wind Energy Council, in partnership with Boston Consulting Group, has published the report “Mission Critical: Building the global wind energy supply chain for a 1.5°C world” .
The report assesses the implications for energy transition policy across four future macroeconomic scenarios by 2030, and how broader global developments like rising inflation and open-door trade versus increased trade barriers will impact the wind supply chain landscape, market size and sustainability of industry returns. The report explores the impact of four different macroeconomic scenarios, and how the wind industry can best navigate uncertainty and change in the global market:
- An Open Door scenario with growing regional collaboration on both supply and demand.
- An Increased Barriers scenario where markets increase trade barriers and turn attention towards domestic investment.
- Economic Downturn where investments dry up and attention focuses towards low-cost rather than low-emission technology.
- Global Escalation where increasing cross-border conflict reduces trade and shifts energy focus from decarbonisation towards availability.
An ‘Open Door’ approach would yield the highest net-positive impact in wind growth to reach climate goals, but the report anticipates the ‘Increased Barriers’ scenario as the most likely to materialise in this decade.
The report outlines six key action areas that would set the conditions for large-scale wind supply chain growth and security:
- Address basic barriers to wind industry growth in land, grids and permitting to increase volume and predictability
- The wind industry must standardise and industrialise
- Regionalisation will be needed to support growth and resilience, while maintaining a globalised supply chain
- The market must provide clear and bankable demand signals
- Trade policy should aim to build competitive industries, not push higher costs onto end users
- Fundamental reform of the power market reform underpins further wind growth