- Published: 22 February 2023 22 February 2023
DNV has published new research about the industry’s perception of the growing market for floating offshore wind and its possibilities for mass commercialisation. The research, which surveyed 244 developers, investors, manufacturers, advisors and operators across the globe, found that 60% of respondents think floating offshore wind will reach full commercialisation by 2035, with 25% believing it will be as early as 2030.
Reaching these targets is ambitious, but early signs are promising, with 60% of organisations with revenue-producing business in wind expecting to increase investment in floating offshore wind in 2023. Reaching full commercialisation will depend, in part, on the investment potential of key markets. Market size was cited by 21% of respondents as the first criteria for choosing a market to invest in, followed by regulatory and political stability (16%), and power grid suitability (12%).
DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook forecasts that levelised costs for floating offshore wind will fall by almost 80% by 2050. 21% of survey respondents believe that standardisation - either through a reduction in the number of concepts or the emergence of a preferable concept will be the biggest factor for LCOE reduction. Bigger turbines and industrialisation come next, closely followed by larger wind farms. Standardisation was also cited by the industry as a crucial factor to mitigate risk.
Supply-chain challenges also come into play, as the offshore wind sector is battling high commodity prices and capacity limitations. The top risk cited by floating wind professionals was a lack of port infrastructure. The second biggest risk cited was installation vessel availability, tied with capacity.
About 300 GW of floating offshore wind will be installed globally in the next 30 years, requiring around 20,000 turbines.