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Development in Africa will result in an expected compounded annual growth rate of 19.8% from 2018 to 2027, with a varied scale and pace of wind market growth across the region, according to Make’s Africa Wind Power Market Outlook. South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco are leaders in Africa’s wind power market and represent more than 85% of the continent’s installed wind capacity. Approximately two thirds of capacity added in Africa through 2027 will be in these markets.
The new government in South Africa signed long-awaited PPAs in the first half of this year and announced a new bidding round in Q4/2018, both of which have helped end a period of uncertainty. In Egypt, developers are demonstrating an ability to drive down cost, which will make wind the most inexpensive source of power generation in the country upon realisation. Despite some delays in project execution, Morocco will remain on track to achieve its 5GW wind capacity target by 2030.
Other notable markets include Ethiopia, Kenya and Tunisia. These markets have been striving to translate their ambitious wind power capacity targets into actual market development due partly to imperfect regulatory frameworks. Tunisia, for example, has started working with developers to revise the PPA terms which were deemed unbankable. Further, these markets will transition to competitive procurement mechanisms for wind power, which will support post-2020 growth. Developers will add nearly 5GW of wind power capacity in these countries from 2018 to 2027.
Many smaller markets in Africa in the North-African, Sub-Saharan and West African sub-regions will experience sporadic, project-scale developments defying multifaceted challenges. Ghana, Senegal, Tanzania will be the key players in their respective sub-regions.
About 20 small markets in Africa are anticipated to add more than 5GW of wind power capacity over the 10-year outlook period, creating opportunity for project developers and turbine OEMs whose resolve will be tested by a multitude of challenges.