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Anticipating Quarterly Winds and Revenues One Month Ahead

BSC Figure1The wind power industry has traditionally used fixed climatologies for anticipating wind speed and wind generation beyond 15 days ahead. However, wind is highly variable at monthly and seasonal scales, and anomalies occur around the globe every now and then. Assuming that future conditions will be similar to average past conditions has several inherent shortcomings. Recent advances in dynamical modelling systems have opened new opportunities for seasonal prediction of wind speed that can improve current practices. Ensemble ocean–atmosphere numerical simulations can provide meaningful forecasts that indicate the probability of having above-normal, normal or below-normal wind conditions in the next season with one month of advance warning. Through an analysis of some case studies we will explore in this article how seasonal predictions of wind speed and generation have been made possible, what their quality is and how they can help in the decision-making processes for practical applications.

By Llorenç Lledó, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona

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