After several years of steady decline in onshore wind turbine prices globally, projects which are expected to be completed in 2021 – 22 are set to drive some modest price increases into the global market.
The global market has seen a weighted average 6.41% per year reduction in prices over the past five-year period, but IntelStor’s Wind Turbine Price Index indicates the weighted average wind turbine price will increase 1.7% in 2020 to US$1.11 million / MW and another 3.15% in 2021 to US$1.15 million / MW. There is the potential for another increase of 10% leading towards 2022, but many projects which are scheduled for completion that year have yet to be confirmed and reach their final investment decision.
These increases are a result of a combination of factors including some commodity cost increases, tariffs on some major components such as permanent magnets as well as wind turbine towers, as well as a perceived reduction in the number of wind turbine suppliers as Senvion’s likely market exit looms.
Globally, the cost of towers is seeing an increase weighed down by import tariffs in the United States from several Asian countries. Additionally, permanent magnet costs have increased recently thanks to China withholding some supply to western markets as part of the ongoing trade dispute with the United States.
The Americas region will see some of the lowest prices globally, bottoming out at just over US$550k / MW in Brazil for a few projects. Contrary to popular belief, the Asia Pacific region will not be the lowest prices in the world, but they will see prices ranging mainly from US$1 million / MW to US$1.68 million / MW with a few outliers.
Africa and the Middle Eastern region will see some reductions from years past with the bulk of their projects coming in at US$1.0 million / MW to 1.25 million / MW. Europe will remain soft compared to the rest of the world with most onshore wind farm project sites at between US$750k / MW up to US$1.1 million / MW.