Published: 20 March 2019 20 March 2019
50.2GW of new wind power was added globally in 2018, a 4% increase YoY and the third highest annual total on record, according to the Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables 'Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q1 2019' report.
The US wind industry is expected to shift fully into execution mode from 2019-2021 in order to fulfil PTC ambitions. During this timeframe, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables expects 48% of the U.S. 10-year outlook to come online.
2019 saw a challenging start for Latin America, as unfavourable dynamics unfolded in Mexico and no awards were given in Colombia’s inaugural auction.
Aggressive renewables targets in India and explosive growth in the offshore sector are expected to drive a 10-year CAGR of 12.2% in Asia Pacific, excluding China. Target compliance in India is likely to bifurcate the next decade’s outlook, with near-term challenges posing issues for the 2020 target. Cumulative offshore capacity in the region will reach almost 19GW from just 111MW at the end of 2018, led by growth in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.
China’s market recovery will continue, as additional provinces in the north work to lift red warnings, supporting 250GW of capacity through to 2028. The annual share of offshore wind in China will average 18% of annual capacity from 2022 to 2028, as a result of onshore grid constraints and saturation.
The transition to auctions in Europe will support a new level of annual capacity additions of offshore wind, with the region expected to average 20GW annually. Proliferation of commercial and industrial demand across Europe offers an increasingly important buyer segment for onshore and offshore wind. Offshore remains central to Europe’s outlook, comprising more than 25% of new capacity over the outlook (CAGR of 14%) and penetrating new markets in Southern and Eastern Europe.
As noted in the Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables report, pioneering development in the Middle East and Africa will spur consistent YoY growth and 10-year CAGRs of 35% and 21%, respectively.