Wind power markets in the Middle East will add 12GW of new capacity between 2018 and 2027, according to MAKE’s 2018 Middle East Wind Power Outlook. The region will benefit from improved macroeconomic stability which will generate strong growth for power demand. In addition, a desire to diversify economies, significant reductions in wind power LCOE, and a fast-growing population will catalyse wind power market development in the region.
Saudi Arabia, Iran and Jordan are key drivers of this growth, comprising nearly 70% of total wind power capacity added over the outlook period. Anticipating its first commercial project in 2019, Saudi Arabia will award1.2GW of wind capacity in 2018 and start commissioning projects toward the second half of next year. In Iran, the improving financing environment will support wind market growth after 2020.
Backed by its Green Corridor Project, Jordan will add more wind power capacity in 2018 than any other country in the Middle East. The Green Corridor Project II will support the long-term outlook with the construction of necessary grid infrastructure for renewable energy projects.
Growth in smaller emerging markets in the region, such as Israel, Lebanon or Oman, is deeply dependent on performance of individual projects. Additionally, reaching political stability in conflict zones like Syria, Iraq and Yemen will support wind power development in these countries from 2022.
In the long-term, political risk and favourable conditions for solar PV may restrict wind power growth in the region. Neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran, for example, have set long-term wind power targets, a fact that could slow market growth from 2023.Moreover, solar PV is rapidly becoming the preferred technology in the region. The cost position and solar resources in the region create a considerable threat to wind power development. However, as costs for wind come down and a track record is established, wind power development will accelerate. Several large projects are expected to come online in 2018, resulting in significant YoY growth, and heralding a period of sustained annual capacity additions in the region.