China’s Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) for renewable power has been submitted to the State Council for final approval. The national targets for wind power have been reduced to 210GW of grid-connected capacity (including 5GW of offshore) by 2020 instead of the original target of 250GW (including 10GW of offshore) included in the draft earlier in 2016.
MAKE’s 10-year outlook for China is downgraded by 6.5% from 2016 to 2025 for both installed and grid-connected capacity. Cumulative installed offshore capacity will face a 47.4% decrease by YE/2020 and 60% decrease by YE/2025, respectively. Annual installed capacity will drop to 20-22GW between 2017-2020. Further reductions to onshore FIT levels in 2018 and to the offshore FIT from 2017 have been proposed and are expected to be released in December 2016. Proposed FIT reductions and increasing curtailment of wind power production will dampen investment enthusiasm. Progress of 10.53GW (changed to 10.45GW) of centrally planned offshore projects has been slower than anticipated, with only 40% installed, under construction or approved. Planned projects which fail to be approved by YE/2016 will be cancelled. However, there is no indication that IPPs are accelerating project approvals. Complete lack of investment incentives means offshore growth remains limited, depending entirely on political drive.