The top three wind turbine players - Vestas, SGRE and GE - will increase their combined global market share from 43% in 2019 to 60% by 2029, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie.
Following Enercon’s financial troubles, and expected turnaround by 2023, Nordex has emerged as a fourth contender in global markets excluding China. Global operational scale, onshore and offshore presence, large balance sheets, closer proximity to the largest asset owners and financial strength will prove to be advantageous for leading Western turbine OEMs and help to consolidate global market share outside of China, says Wood Mackenzie.
Vestas, currently sitting at top spot in the global rankings, will be faced with strong competition over the coming years due to SGRE’s expansion in the offshore segment. The top eight global wind turbines OEMs will more than double their cumulative instalments this decade. According to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, Vestas and SGRE will surpass the 200GW mark by 2029, while GE will be 12GW shy of that number. Additionally, Goldwind will emerge as the only Chinese OEM to breach the 100GW mark by 2029.
SGRE reinforced its market leadership in 2020 with more than 15GW of operational projects and over 17GW of projects under backlog. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) targets forced many turbine OEMs to chase 15+MW turbines. Vestas/MHI Vestas is expected to accelerate much-needed investments in next generation 15+MW turbines. These technologies will elevate Vestas’ offshore market share post-2025 and lower LCOE for offshore asset owners.
GE continues to await the series production of Haliade X in 2021 for delivery to customers starting in 2022. GE will switch to a larger rotor for deliveries, which will pit them against their peers and result in a larger market share for the company towards the end of this decade.
In China, SEwind and MingYang are expected to consolidate the Chinese offshore market with 60% of combined market share over the next decade, despite increasing competition from other OEMs.