According to a new report released by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) and MEC+ (MEC Intelligence), India’s wind energy capacity can only realistically reach 50 GW by 2022.
India Wind Outlook Towards 2022: Looking beyond the headwinds objectively analyses the factors which have led to a drag on market growth for India’s wind energy industry over the past two years, and provides an assessment on the forecast along with a pathway to overcome these challenges to realise the high potential of the market.
India is the world’s fourth-largest onshore wind market by installations, with 37.5 GW of capacity as of 2019. The government has set a target to reach total wind capacity of 60 GW by 2022 and 140 GW by 2030. However, project installation has been decelerating recently, with only 2.3 GW installed in 2019, nearly half of the 4.1 GW installed in 2017. The report finds that even in the high case scenario, the country is likely to fall short of its ambitious wind energy target for 2022.
The report highlights key challenges that must be overcome to restore strong wind market growth in India, including: grid and land availability; off-taker risks; onerous tender conditions; and low tariff caps. Collectively, these challenges have led to the last three central wind tenders and all state wind tenders to be unsubscribed, retendered or even cancelled, while 80 per cent of awarded projects have been delayed by 6-12 months.
Three scenarios for new wind installations in India until 2022 are highlighted in the report, ranging from 11-17 GW of installations depending on the extent and speed with which the government and industry are able to resolve these challenges.
In 2020, supply chain disruptions due to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis will further compound existing challenges to delay around 0.7-1.1 GW in new volume to 2021 and also possible cancellation of some planned auctions.