Annual grid-connected wind power capacity is set to overtake installed capacity in China this year and stay ahead over the next 10 years, according to Make’s China Wind Power Outlook 2017. Curtailment and the transition from a feed-in tariff (FIT) to an auction mechanism will impact grid-connected capacity until 2020.
Once the auction mechanism is properly in place, average annual capacity additions will increase from 2021 to 2027. By 2020, China is expected to surpass its national cumulative wind power target of 210GW set in the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Wind Power. On average, Chinese wind developers will connect more than 20GW per year over the 10-year outlook. Offshore wind and repowering will be large contributors to this upwards trend. Due to the rapid increase in new capacity over the past years, China offers a great market opportunity for repowering. More than 300 installed wind turbines exceeded a 20-year lifespan by the end of 2017. This number is increasing at a great rate, presenting market potential. Make’s 10-year outlook also finds wind developers, especially provincial state-owned and private companies, looking increasingly towards the distributed wind market for opportunities. While this sector will grow, distributed wind power will unlikely affect annual wind capacity additions at large, since the capacity of these projects is rather small.