Application of a Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System

A multi-scheme ensemble prediction system has been successfully applied to the forecasting of wind energy in the Republic of Ireland. An accurate forecasting ability is critical for the safe, efficient and economical operation of the power system. Accurate forecasting has become particularly important because of the rapidly increasing proportion of wind-generated power in the small, synchronous Irish system and also because of the  impending Single Electricity Market for the Republic and Northern Ireland. Results are presented here for forecasting the total wind generation of the power system. Geographical dispersion of wind farms and the use of ensemble prediction techniques – which allow  the forecast uncertainty to be quantified – should permit higher penetrations of wind generation on isolated and weakly interconnected power systems.

By Steven J. Lang, University College Cork, Ireland